Monthly Sales Trend Chart of China's Heavy Truck Market from 2019 to 2025 (Unit: Vehicles)

Heavy truck sales in December increased by 13% year-on-year, with a total of over 1.13 million vehicles sold throughout the year

In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of the heavy truck market significantly narrowed.

According to the preliminary data obtained by First Commercial Vehicle Network, in December 2025, China's heavy-duty truck market sold a total of about 95000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared to the same period last year's 84200 vehicles. Looking at the whole year of 2025, China's heavy-duty truck market has achieved nine consecutive increases, from April to December, with an average growth rate of 41%!

Looking at the past eight years, 95000 vehicles belong to the "upper middle level", lower than the 110000 vehicles in December 2020 and slightly higher than the sales volume in December 2019. Overall, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy-duty truck market reached a new high of 1.137 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 26%.

Annual Sales Trend Chart of China's Heavy Truck Industry from 2015 to 2025 (Unit: 10000 Vehicles)

There are two main reasons for the sharp narrowing of the year-on-year growth rate of wholesale sales in the heavy-duty truck market by the end of 2025. On the one hand, the sales base for the same period last year was relatively high, reaching 84200 units - mainly driven by the replacement of old and outdated National III trucks in the fourth quarter of 2024; On the other hand, stimulated by the 2025 National III and IV policy of exchanging old trucks for new ones to expand the market, market sales have continued to rise for nine consecutive years since April 2025, with a total industry sales volume of over 1.1 million vehicles for the year. Most mainstream heavy-duty truck companies have achieved their annual sales targets quite well. Therefore, in December, some mainstream heavy-duty truck manufacturers have "hidden sales" and will reserve a portion of wholesale sales until the first quarter of 2026 to ensure a "good start".

In December 2025, China's heavy truck exports also maintained steady growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of nearly 20%. In 2025, the export sales of heavy trucks in China are expected to reach around 330000 units, setting a new historical high.

By 2025, terminal sales will approach 800000 units, with electric heavy-duty trucks reaching up to 220000 units

In December 2025, the wholesale sales volume of China's heavy truck industry increased by about 13% year-on-year. What is the situation of domestic terminal sales?

Similarly, there has been a 'narrowing'.

In December, the terminal sales volume of the domestic heavy-duty truck market is expected to increase by about 11% year-on-year (according to the compulsory traffic insurance standard); Among them, the new energy heavy-duty truck broke the record and reached a new high, and for the first time in history, its monthly sales exceeded 30000 units; However, the terminal sales performance of natural gas heavy-duty trucks and domestic diesel heavy-duty trucks is mediocre. The expected sales volume of domestic heavy-duty truck terminals for the whole year of 2025 is close to 800000 units, an increase of over 30% year-on-year, which is the best performance in the past four years from 2022 to 2025.

Let's first look at new energy heavy-duty trucks. As the policy of replacing old operating trucks with new ones approaches the end of the year, coupled with the early purchase effect brought about by the halving of the purchase tax reduction for new energy vehicles from January 1, 2026, the terminal sales of new energy heavy trucks in the last month of 2025 are expected to reach a new high (even "explosive"), with overall sales expected to exceed 37000 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 1.4 times. The industry penetration rate in a single month is expected to be close to 50%, and both monthly sales and penetration rates have broken historical records. And this sales record is likely to last until at least early 2027 or even the first half of 2027.

After a leap like "carp jumping over the dragon gate" in December, it is expected that the terminal sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China will reach about 224000 units for the whole year of 2025, a year-on-year increase of more than 1.7 times and a net increase of 140000 units compared to the same period last year's 82000 units; The penetration rate of electrification has increased from 13.6% in 2024 to 28% in 2025, which is equivalent to more than doubling the penetration rate.

Let's take another look at gas heavy-duty trucks. From August to November, the demand for gas vehicle terminals continued to rebound, with sales of gas heavy-duty trucks increasing by 36% year-on-year in August, 149% year-on-year in September, 138% year-on-year in October, and 71% year-on-year in November. In December 2025, the sales volume of domestic gas heavy-duty truck terminals has declined compared to the previous month, with an expected decrease of nearly 40%. The year-on-year growth rate has further narrowed to about 26%, and the domestic penetration rate is expected to be around 16%. In 2025, the domestic sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks are expected to approach 200000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 11%. The penetration rate of gasification is expected to be about 25%, which is lower than the 29.6% in the same period last year.

By 2025, the total sales and market share of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China will even greatly exceed those of natural gas heavy-duty trucks, which also shows the fast speed of electrification of heavy-duty trucks, completely exceeding people's expectations and imagination.

Conclusion: What is the trend in 2026?

In 2025, China's heavy-duty truck market will close with nearly 1.14 million vehicles, delivering a good "report card". In the newly arrived year of 2026, the policy of exchanging old trucks for new ones has been confirmed to continue and subsidies will not be reduced. Can the domestic heavy truck industry continue to grow?

Considering the certain overdraft of the heavy-duty truck market caused by the trade in policy for old operating trucks in 2025, the heavy-duty truck market is expected to show a slight decline domestically and a steady growth in exports in 2026.